Iran Brandishes ‘Nuclear Talks’ Card While Preparing for War, U.S. Voices Frustration as Domestic Backlash Intensifies

Iran Signals Willingness for Nuclear Negotiations Amid U.S. Military Pressure, Draft Agreement Under Preparation
Wartime Posture Maintained, Risk of Armed Confrontation Persists
U.S. Questions Tehran’s Refusal to ‘Capitulate,’ Domestic Dissent in Iran Escalates

Nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran are expected to resume in the near term. As Washington amasses substantial military assets across the Middle East and sharpens its threats against Tehran, Iranian authorities have indicated their readiness to return to the negotiating table with a draft agreement in hand. At the same time, Iran has preserved room for dialogue while sustaining a transition toward a wartime footing, leaving open the possibility of direct military confrontation with the United States.

Prospects for Renewed U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks

On the 22nd (local time), AFP and Reuters reported that Washington and Tehran are likely to resume negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program in Geneva, Switzerland. Iranian officials have recently conveyed optimism regarding the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough with the United States. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, stated in an interview with MSNBC on the 20th that Tehran is preparing a draft agreement at Washington’s request and plans to deliver it to Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, following final approval from senior leadership within two to three days. Araghchi added that both sides could negotiate the draft language at their next meeting and reach a conclusion, expressing the view that serious talks on the text could commence within a week and culminate in a finalized agreement.

In a subsequent interview with CBS News on the 22nd, Araghchi said there exists “a good opportunity” for a diplomatic resolution and confirmed that details of a potential accord are being coordinated ahead of resumed negotiations on the nuclear program. While warning that Iran retains the right to self-defense should the United States undertake military action, he nonetheless signaled cautious optimism about the prospects for a deal. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, acting as mediator, likewise underscored that talks are scheduled to resume in Geneva on the 23rd, citing positive momentum toward a final agreement.

Tehran’s posture emerges amid a marked escalation in U.S. military pressure. Washington has deployed its largest concentration of forces to the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War. Satellite imagery analyzed by Chinese commercial firm MizarVision indicates that the United States has stationed EA-18G electronic warfare aircraft, F-35, F-22, F-15, and F-16 fighter jets, C-17 transport aircraft, KC-135 aerial refueling tankers, and E-3C airborne early warning and control aircraft across the region. Two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, have also been dispatched, alongside advanced missile defense systems including THAAD and Patriot interceptors deployed in neighboring allied states to counter potential Iranian retaliation. Against a backdrop of heightened tensions, President Trump declared at the inaugural meeting of the Peace Committee on the 19th that “bad things will happen” if Iran fails to reach a nuclear agreement, effectively setting a ten-day deadline for negotiations.

Unabated Resolve for Military Response

Although Iran has expressed a willingness to engage in negotiations under mounting U.S. pressure, it has not relinquished the option of military retaliation. On the 19th, Iran and Russia conducted joint military exercises. Iranian outlets including Press TV reported that the two navies carried out drills simulating the rescue of hijacked vessels near the port of Bandar Abbas along the Strait of Hormuz. Assets deployed included Iran’s Alvand-class destroyer, missile-launching warships, helicopters, amphibious craft, and fast-attack boats.

Concurrently, Iran is transitioning toward a nationwide wartime posture in anticipation of potential U.S. use of force. According to The Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, the Iranian regime has forward-deployed troops, decentralized command authority, and intensified crackdowns on dissidents perceived as potential internal threats amid instability. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reinstated a defensive doctrine enabling frontline units to conduct independent operations and has advanced naval forces into the Strait of Hormuz. These measures reflect mounting concerns within Tehran that failure in nuclear negotiations with Washington could jeopardize the regime’s survival.

Defensive fortifications around nuclear facilities have also been reinforced. Satellite imagery analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security shows that Iran has strengthened entrances to the Isfahan nuclear facility and the underground tunnel complex known as “Pickaxe Mountain” with concrete and rock barriers. The enhancements appear designed to mitigate the impact of potential airstrikes and obstruct incursions by U.S. special operations forces.

Renewed Wave of Protests Inside Iran

U.S. officials have expressed skepticism regarding Iran’s dual-track approach. In an interview with Fox News on the 22nd, Special Envoy Witkoff stated that while he would not use the term “surrender,” the president is questioning why Tehran has not capitulated. He said President Trump is perplexed that, despite the deployment of overwhelming maritime power and sustained pressure in the region, Iran has not approached Washington to declare that it does not seek weapons or to present a concrete proposal toward an agreement.

Domestic unrest within Iran is also intensifying. As U.S. military threats mount, public anger toward the regime—accused of killing large numbers of demonstrators—has resurfaced. The New York Times reported that on the 21st, the first day of the new academic term, anti-government protests erupted across major university campuses, with students commemorating victims of past crackdowns and condemning security forces. At Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology, hundreds of demonstrators carrying Iranian flags marched through campus chanting “Death to the dictator,” targeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Clashes broke out between protesters and plainclothes Basij militia outside campus gates, with violence reported during the subsequent crackdown. The Basij, a paramilitary force affiliated with the IRGC, was previously deployed in last month’s bloody suppression.

At Amirkabir University of Technology, students dressed in black gathered to honor fallen protesters and chanted “Long live the Shah,” expressing support for exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch. A student group at the university posted on Telegram that demonstrators declared, “Our target is the entire system,” while police sealed campus entrances and detained several students. Students at Tehran University of Medical Sciences staged marches and sit-ins in solidarity with detained classmates, while additional protests were reported at a university in Mashhad in northeastern Iran and at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran.

High school students have also joined the wave of collective action by refusing to attend classes. The Iranian Teachers’ Trade Association Council stated that students and educators in multiple cities, including Tehran, Gorgan, and Bandar Abbas, remained at home in protest against the regime. The coordinated action, dubbed “Empty Desks,” was described as an effort to preserve the names and memories of hundreds of slain students and dozens of teachers.