[AI Bubble] OpenAI’s Shift Toward “Subscription Plus Advertising” Monetization, Following the Platform Playbook?

OpenAI Tests Advertising on Free Tier and ChatGPT Go
Exploring a New Business Model to Reduce Reliance on Subscriptions
YouTube and Netflix Stabilized Revenues by Combining Ads and Subscriptions

OpenAI, which has provided generative artificial intelligence (AI) services without advertising, has decided to introduce ads on select products. Amid growing debate over an AI bubble and mounting pressure from massive infrastructure investments, the company appears to have concluded that a subscription-centric model alone is insufficient to secure both growth and profitability. This dilemma mirrors challenges long faced across the broader platform industry. As platform companies such as YouTube, Netflix, and Spotify have each recalibrated the balance between advertising and subscriptions in different ways, OpenAI is now widely viewed as entering a full-fledged transition phase in its revenue model.

OpenAI “Advertising Formats Will Be Expanded Further”

According to The Information on January 22 (local time), OpenAI announced the global launch of ChatGPT Go, a lower-priced version of ChatGPT, on January 16 and has since begun advertising tests for a subset of users in the United States. In a statement, OpenAI said it plans to pilot ads in the U.S. first and then consider a gradual global rollout. The ads are displayed separately from ChatGPT’s responses, appearing clearly labeled beneath the answers. The company also stated that ads related to sensitive topics such as mental health, physical health, and politics will not be shown to users under the age of 18.

Advertising will initially apply to logged-in free users and subscribers to the ChatGPT Go plan, which is priced at $8 per month. The Go plan offers higher message limits and more image generation capabilities than the free version. By contrast, the Plus, Pro, and Enterprise tiers will remain ad-free. OpenAI has indicated that it intends to broaden the scope of advertising formats over time. Fidji Simo, OpenAI’s Chief Executive Officer of Applications, said, “A conversational interface can go beyond simple messages or links,” adding that the company is considering formats that allow users to ask follow-up questions immediately after viewing an ad to inform purchasing decisions.

Major international media outlets, including Reuters and Bloomberg, described the move as “a meaningful shift for OpenAI, which has relied heavily on subscription services.” The decision is widely interpreted as a response to mounting pressure to secure profitability as the company pours vast sums into AI infrastructure such as data centers while preparing for an initial public offering. Advertisers participating in the current pilot program are reportedly being offered commitments of less than $1 million during the test phase. The ads are charged on an impression-based model rather than per click, and OpenAI plans to develop its own ad-buying tools to attract a broader range of advertisers.

YouTube Drives Both Advertising and Subscriptions Higher

OpenAI has recently found itself at the center of the AI bubble debate, including controversy over alleged circular transactions with Nvidia. In a survey of founders and investors conducted last year, it was even ranked second among “AI companies most likely to collapse first.” Sam Altman, OpenAI’s Chief Executive Officer, recently stated on a podcast that annual revenue of $100 billion by 2027 is achievable, but skepticism remains widespread over whether the company can keep pace with rapidly rising costs. Still, some observers believe that combining subscriptions with advertising could allow OpenAI to move partially beyond bubble concerns and generate tangible profits, pointing to multiple proven precedents.

YouTube stands out as a representative example. The core of YouTube’s success lies in its ability to operate a system that simultaneously lifts advertising and subscription revenues through a fundamental transformation of the platform itself. In the second quarter of last year, YouTube’s advertising revenue returned to double-digit growth, approaching $10 billion. While the economic rebound played a role, many analysts attribute the performance primarily to a structural shift that reshaped both ad exposure methods and content consumption patterns. YouTube has evolved from a platform dependent on raw view counts into a revenue engine that precisely designs user behavior.

In particular, its AI-driven recommendation system and Shorts-focused advertising strategy have boosted both ad pricing and efficiency. Recommendation algorithms reorganized around watch time and engagement improved the quality of ad exposure, while the short-form, repetitive consumption environment centered on Shorts rapidly expanded advertising inventory. At the same time, YouTube avoided positioning advertising and subscriptions as opposing forces. It offered premium subscriptions to users seeking an ad-free experience, while providing ad-supported free access to price-sensitive users, effectively separating revenue channels. As a result, subscription revenue expanded rapidly even as advertising income grew, reflecting market acceptance that the ad-free experience itself carries sufficient willingness to pay.

Spotify Maintains a Subscription-Centric Strategy

Netflix has also used ad-supported plans to complement the limits of subscription revenue. Whereas YouTube represents a growth model that scales both ads and subscriptions in tandem, Netflix’s introduction of advertising resembles a defensive strategy adopted after its subscription-led structure began to show strain. As repeated price increases heightened the risk of subscriber churn, Netflix opted for a lower-priced ad-supported tier to cushion attrition and preserve its overall revenue structure. In practice, Netflix has maintained overall revenue growth since introducing the ad tier, with the number of ad-supported subscribers rising rapidly.

Netflix currently retains direct control over its advertising business rather than outsourcing it. By building its own advertising platform, Netflix Ads Suite, the company deals directly with advertisers and fine-tunes ad placement and frequency to avoid undermining content immersion. Maintaining a dedicated organization for advertising strategy, responsible for both user experience and ad efficiency, reflects the same philosophy. Instead of aggressively expanding ad inventory like YouTube, Netflix is interpreted as pursuing a restrained approach that protects the premium value of its content.

While YouTube and Netflix have each found equilibrium by adjusting the balance between advertising and subscriptions, Spotify continues to adhere to a subscription-first strategy. Spotify maintains a distinctive revenue structure in which roughly 90% of total revenue comes from subscriptions, with advertising accounting for only about 10%. Industry data show that in the third quarter of last year, Spotify recorded total revenue of approximately $4.6 billion, of which about $4.2 billion came from subscriptions and roughly $0.4 billion from advertising. This stands in stark contrast to YouTube’s ad-dominant model.

This subscription-centric approach has remained relatively stable even amid price hikes. Despite subscription price increases in North America, user loyalty has held up, leading to a marked improvement in operating profit. Spotify is now expecting additional revenue from premium price increases in the United States in 2026. While the company plans to expand podcast and video advertising, these efforts are viewed as complementary rather than transformative. With more than 30% of its roughly 700 million users converted to paid subscribers, Spotify’s strategy of prioritizing subscriptions over advertising continues to be regarded as a viable option supported by a stable cash flow.