“Severing the Link with the U.S.” ‘Buy European’ Accelerates as NATO’s Next-Generation AWACS Pivots to a European-Made Platform

Cracks in the U.S.-centric AWACS architecture, Saab-Bombardier alliance model emerges
Defense spending increases and wartime-level rearmament reinforce Europe’s internal defense-industrial cohesion
Sweden’s GlobalEye technological edge comes into focus, reshaping the next-generation AWACS competition

NATO’s program to introduce its next-generation Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) is rapidly pivoting away from U.S. dominance toward a European coalition model. The decision, which underscores a fundamental fracture in the security posture that has long underpinned the transatlantic alliance, reflects Europe’s firm commitment to strategic autonomy and an independent defense-industrial ecosystem. It is being viewed as a turning point in which the foundation of NATO’s airborne surveillance architecture, in place since the 1980s, is being comprehensively replaced, while a European-made platform is set to be incorporated into the alliance’s core surveillance assets for the first time in roughly 40 years.

Saab-Bombardier Consortium Emerges as Likely Winner of NATO AWACS Program

On April 28, German outlet Frankfurter Rundschau, citing NATO officials, reported that a joint solution from Canada’s Bombardier and Sweden’s Saab has emerged as the leading candidate to replace the U.S. military’s 14 E-3 Sentry aircraft. The NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) is currently in the substantive evaluation phase, focusing on the two companies’ cooperative model as it reviews the configuration of the new platform.

The project is a long-term initiative pursued as part of NATO’s Alliance Future Surveillance and Control (AFSC) program, with reviews of successor aircraft having been underway in earnest since 2016. Amid mounting operational burdens from aging aircraft, rising maintenance costs and declining availability rates, NATO has concluded that it can no longer delay the establishment of a new surveillance, command and control architecture. The aging E-3 fleet has an average aircraft age of nearly 40 years, while maintenance costs and availability challenges have continued to accumulate. Should the decision be formalized, it would mark the first case in which Boeing’s monopoly structure, sustained since the 1980s, collapses.

The new solution under discussion would use Bombardier’s Global 6000 or upgraded Global 6500 as the platform, equipped with Saab’s GlobalEye system. A fleet of 10 to 12 aircraft is being considered, with the contract expected to be worth tens of billions of dollars. For Bombardier in particular, it could become one of the largest military contracts in the company’s history.

U.S. “Eye in the Sky” Humiliated by Iranian Drone

Until last year, Boeing’s E-7A Wedgetail had been considered the leading candidate to succeed the E-3. But relations deteriorated as U.S. President Donald Trump maintained pressure ranging from his push to incorporate Greenland to suggestions that the United States could withdraw from NATO. Europe’s stance is now shifting accordingly. According to the 2025 NATO Annual Report released on March 25 by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, all 32 NATO member states except Iceland, which has no military, achieved the target of spending at least 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in 2025 for the first time in the alliance’s history. Some Eastern European countries have raised the figure to as high as 5%, effectively moving into a level of military expansion comparable to a wartime footing.

In the report, Rutte formally declared, “The era in which European allies excessively relied on U.S. military power is over,” adding that “a fundamental shift in awareness has taken place in which we are taking responsibility for our own security.” This movement is now translating into regulatory change. Under the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) adopted by the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union (EU), the bloc plans to spend at least 50% of its defense procurement budget on products made within Europe by 2030 and raise the share of joint procurement to 40%.

The recent destruction of an E-3 Sentry in the Middle East is also believed to have had a significant impact on NATO’s internal judgment. The E-3 is an advanced aircraft often described as a flying command post and high-performance radar base, with its price known to range from hundreds of millions of dollars to about $680 million. It was the first time an E-3 aircraft in global service had been lost in combat. The incident, caused by an Iranian drone worth only tens of thousands of dollars, has dealt a direct blow to perceptions of U.S. military capability. From Europe’s perspective, the risks of relying on U.S.-made platforms have now been confirmed through a concrete case.

Acceleration of European-Made Weapons Procurement Principle

Against this backdrop, the EU’s “European-made weapons procurement principle” is expected to gain further momentum. In March last year, the European Commission announced detailed rules for a joint weapons procurement loan program named SAFE, or Security Action for Europe, worth about $176 billion. The loans are backed by the EU budget, carry maturities of up to 45 years, and member states may apply for them until 2030. At least 65% of the finished product price must be sourced from contractors and subcontractors in the EU, the European Economic Area, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA, comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), and Ukraine. The remaining maximum 35% may be purchased from non-EU countries that have concluded security agreements. This is an extension of the “Buy European” policy, which gives priority to European-made products even in defense programs.

The trend toward prioritizing European-made purchases is already materializing, led by France. At the Bourget Air Show in June last year, France announced stronger defense cooperation with Sweden and signed a letter of intent to purchase GlobalEye. The contract signed by France’s defense procurement agency, the DGA, also includes an option to purchase two additional Saab GlobalEye aircraft. These aircraft are expected to replace France’s five aging Boeing E-3F Sentry aircraft.

At the core of GlobalEye is the Erieye Extended Range (Erieye ER) active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar mounted on top of the fuselage. The radar boasts a detection range of more than 350 nautical miles, or about 650 km, and can identify threats penetrating at low altitude from cruising altitude at a distance of 285 miles, or about 458 km. Above all, GlobalEye moves beyond the limitations of legacy early warning aircraft focused mainly on airborne surveillance, realizing the world’s first swing-role capability across air, land and sea domains.

In the air domain, it is capable of detecting even future threat assets incorporating U.S. stealth technology. Its maritime surveillance capability is also exceptional, enabling it to identify ultra-small vessels such as jet skis beyond the horizon and even submarine periscopes, which are extremely difficult to detect. In support of ground operations, its ground moving target indication (GMTI) function can track the movement routes of vehicles in real time from long distances, effectively providing an all-seeing perspective across land, sea and air. With endurance of more than 11 hours, the aircraft can integrate multidomain information in real time and transmit it to command authorities, allowing it to serve as an all-round player from peacetime border surveillance to wartime strike command.

Meanwhile, Saab is securing stable demand based on the European domestic market while simultaneously pursuing expansion into external markets, including South Korea. Saab is reportedly considering the possibility of incorporating GlobalEye into South Korea’s Kill Chain, the country’s enemy weapons detection and preemptive strike system. Saab has already formed a united front with Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), having signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the company in October last year for industrial cooperation and technology transfer related to South Korea’s second airborne early warning and control aircraft project and future domestic programs. Since South Korea introduced Boeing’s E-737 Peace Eye (E-7) in the first phase of the project, GlobalEye realistically remains at a disadvantage in the second phase as well, but Saab has signaled its intent to overcome that hurdle through a technology transfer agreement with KAI, the country’s largest aerospace and defense company.