A Market for the Wealthy Only: Home Lottery Wins Still Out of Reach

Mass Exodus from Subscription Savings Accounts
Surging Sale Prices, Tighter Regulations, and Escalating Point Competition
Mortgage Caps Reduced, Making It a ‘Distant Story’ for Ordinary Households

The housing subscription program—once regarded as the primary ladder to homeownership for ordinary households—has effectively lost its function. Sale prices continue to soar almost daily, while the mortgage restrictions imposed under the October 15 housing market stabilization package have made financing even more difficult. As a result, subscription opportunities in major metropolitan developments have essentially devolved into a market reserved for cash-rich buyers. The price cap system, introduced with the stated intention of curbing excessive sale prices, has instead created a frenzy of “lottery subscriptions,” further deepening the sense of deprivation among lower-income households.

3-Year Decline of 2.25 Million Accounts

According to subscription account statistics from Korea Real Estate Board’s Subscription Home as of the end of October, the total number of subscription savings account holders stood at 26,312,993, down 36,941 from the previous month (26,349,934)—the lowest monthly figure this year. This decline continues despite government efforts to retain account holders by raising interest rates on subscription savings accounts—which fund the Housing and Urban Fund—and by expanding income tax deduction limits.

The number of subscription savings accounts has steadily decreased from 28,599,279 in June 2022 to 26,433,650 in February 2025. Although slight rebounds occurred in March and August, the downward trend resumed. In September alone, the number fell by 23,335. Compared with June 2022, immediately before the decline accelerated, a staggering 2,249,345 subscribers closed their accounts over the past three years and three months. As subscription accounts have decreased, subscription competition ratios have also fallen. According to RealToday, a real estate research firm, the nationwide average competition ratio for first-priority apartment subscriptions from January to October this year was 7.1 to 1, only one-quarter of the 26.8 to 1 recorded in 2020.

The primary driver of the decline is that soaring sale prices—driven by deregulation and rising construction costs—have sharply reduced the “subscription merit.” During the housing boom, winning a subscription often yielded capital gains worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. But today, sale prices are comparable to—or even higher than—prevailing market prices. According to the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG), the average sale price per square meter for newly launched private apartments nationwide over the past year reached $415 per ㎡ as of the end of October, up 2.47% from the previous month and 5.09% from a year earlier. Converted to 3.3㎡, the average price stood at $1,370, marking the first entry into the mid-$1,000 range.

In Seoul, the average sale price per square meter rose 3.25% from the previous month to $973 per ㎡. Converted to the popular 84㎡ layout, this amounts to $81,000. The situation across the greater metropolitan region is similar, with numerous developments in Gyeonggi Province surpassing the $103,000 range for 84㎡ units. Last year, an apartment in Gwacheon exceeded $144,000, and recent cases in Suwon and Gwangmyeong have crossed $103,000, with Anyang also breaching the same threshold for 84㎡ units.

‘Tens of Millions in Lottery Gains,’ Even Perfect Scores Rejected

Point-based inflation has intensified. At Jamsil Le-El (the Mi-seong/Croba reconstruction project) in Seoul’s Songpa District, one of the most sought-after developments this year, even a perfect 69-point score for a four-person household failed to secure a unit. The minimum winning score for the 74㎡ layout reached 74 points (59㎡ Type D). When even a perfect four-person household score is insufficient, one- and two-person households see little reason to maintain their subscription accounts. Jamsil Le-El also produced the first 84-point perfect score in Seoul this year—a score attainable only by households of seven or more who have remained without a home for at least 15 years.

At Banpo Raemian Trinity One—touted as a “lottery subscription” with expected capital gains of up to $20 million—the winning score was 82, just two points shy of perfection. Even a perfect four-person household score was inadequate. The minimum winning score was 70, implying that realistically only households with five or more members had a chance.

Banpo Districts 1·2·4 are expected to show similar cutoff patterns. Although the development will supply about 1,900 general-sale units—triple the quantity of Trinity One—its closer proximity to the Han River means river-view units will be abundant. A Seoul real estate expert noted, “The cutoff score for Gangnam and Seoul subscription draws continues to rise each year. Longer periods of being without a home and wider price gaps relative to sale prices intensify competition,” adding, “Districts 1·2·4 could surpass even the One Pentas development, which produced three perfect-score winners, due to abundant river-view supply.”

Financing Conditions Worsening Under Mortgage Curbs

Winning a subscription is not the end of the challenges. Banpo Raemian Trinity One, subject to the price cap system, is priced at $126,000–$146,000 for 59㎡ units and $181,000–$188,000 for 84㎡ units. Yet mortgage restrictions have made financing far more difficult. Under the June 27 and October 15 packages, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio has been reduced from 70% to 40%, and loan caps limit mortgages for homes priced above $1.71 million to a maximum of $137,000. In addition, interim financing loans are capped at 40% of the sale price, and using tenant deposits to cover final payments is no longer allowed. Essentially, only “cash-rich buyers” can realistically participate.

Yet Trinity One attracted 54,631 first-priority subscriptions for 230 units despite these burdens. The price-cap system created expectations of capital gains reaching into the tens of millions of dollars, attracting affluent buyers en masse. Critics argue that policies meant to stabilize home prices—like price caps and mortgage curbs—are instead fueling speculative investment by wealthy cash buyers. Structural flaws also remain; point-weighted competition favors larger families and long-term no-home households, while young adults and newlyweds face near-zero chances. A system once designed to provide hope has effectively become one that exacerbates intergenerational inequality.

Introduced in 1977, the subscription savings account served as a “ladder into the middle class.” Even without large upfront capital, diligent savings once enabled the dream of owning a respectable home. But young subscribers closing their accounts today say, “It’s no longer possible to save up from a salary and buy a home in Seoul.” Residential insecurity leaves young adults reluctant to marry or have children.

The decline in subscription savings accounts is also hurting the Housing and Urban Fund. The fund’s surplus—built from subscription account balances—plummeted from $33.56B at the end of 2021 to $6.37B in the first half of this year. Falling below $7B marks the lowest level in 15 years. Surging expenditures from support for jeonse-fraud victims and expanded policy financing have rapidly depleted the fund, while declining subscribers have choked off fresh inflows. Experts warn that reforms are urgent. One real estate specialist noted, “Under the current scoring system, one- and two-person households have virtually no chance, and even long-time account holders gain nothing without sufficient capital,” stressing the need to expand special-supply options and increase the lottery-based share for private developments.