With the patent expiration of semaglutide in China approaching, an all-out price war is expected to erupt amid intensifying competition for leadership in next-generation obesity treatments

As the patent expiration of semaglutide nears in China, will price competition begin in earnest
The biopharmaceutical industry is also accelerating development of new drugs to rival Wegovy
Competition is expanding to secure next-generation obesity treatments such as oral drugs

Price competition in the global obesity treatment market is expected to intensify in earnest. This is because the compound patent in China for semaglutide—the active ingredient in the obesity drug Wegovy developed by Novo Nordisk—is set to expire within this month, increasing the likelihood that numerous low-cost generic drugs will enter the market. Ahead of this impending “seismic shift,” the biopharmaceutical industry is making all-out efforts to secure leadership in the obesity treatment market by adjusting sales prices and advancing development of oral new drugs.

Chinese biopharmaceutical industry challenges the obesity treatment market

According to the pharmaceutical industry on the 10th, the obesity drug candidate ecnoglutide injection developed by Chinese biotech firm Hangzhou Sciwind Biosciences recently received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) of China as a treatment for overweight and obesity in adults. Ecnoglutide is an injectable drug that mimics the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) hormone—similar to Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro—and is designed to selectively activate specific signaling pathways crucial for weight reduction and metabolic improvement.

Chinese biotech company Jiuyuan Gene Biopharmaceutical has also begun the sales authorization process in China for “Jikeqin,” a biosimilar to Wegovy. According to Jiuyuan’s disclosure, Jikeqin is a long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist semaglutide biosimilar indicated for weight management in patients with obesity or overweight. Citing the results of a previously completed Phase 3 clinical trial, Jiuyuan explained that after 44 weeks of treatment, Jikeqin demonstrated clinically equivalent outcomes to the reference drug in both body-weight change rate and safety indicators.

In addition, nearly 10 semaglutide-based drugs are currently awaiting sales approval in China. The reason the Chinese biotechnology market has begun focusing on obesity treatments is that the semaglutide patent in China will expire on the 20th. After that date, it will become possible to manufacture generic drugs with the same ingredients as the original product within China, increasing the likelihood that price competition in the obesity treatment market will intensify. As patents subsequently expire in countries such as India, Brazil, and Mexico following China, this trend is expected to spread globally in the near future.

The “original powerhouses” chased by new drugs

In addition, independent development efforts for obesity treatments across various countries are also acting as a factor driving down drug prices. In Korea, for example, Celltrion is developing the quadruple-acting injectable drug CT-G32. CT-G32 is designed to act simultaneously on four hormone receptors based on GLP-1. Celltrion is currently conducting animal efficacy evaluations of the treatment and is also considering expanding its mechanism of action beyond appetite suppression to include promoting fat breakdown and regulating energy metabolism. The target deadline for submission of an Investigational New Drug (IND) application is the first half of next year.

Hanmi Pharmaceutical is also preparing to commercialize its self-developed GLP-1–based obesity treatment efpeglenatide and is pursuing regulatory procedures with the aim of launching the drug as early as the second half of this year. The drug was developed for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or higher, reflecting body shape and weight characteristics common among domestic patients. Mounjaro and Wegovy can only be prescribed to patients with a BMI of 30 or higher, or those with a BMI of 27 or higher who have at least one obesity-related condition such as hypertension or diabetes. Hanmi Pharmaceutical plans to secure competitiveness in the domestic market by pricing efpeglenatide lower than major global products and has established a goal of generating approximately $75 million in additional annual revenue from the treatment by 2027.

As the likelihood of price competition increases, manufacturers of original obesity treatments have begun implementing preemptive price cuts. Novo Nordisk has nearly halved the monthly price in China for the once-weekly high-dose Wegovy injection from $263 to $137, and starting in 2027 it also plans to reduce the wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) of Wegovy, Ozempic, and Rybelsus by 35–50%. WAC is the official price pharmaceutical companies present to wholesalers and serves as the benchmark for negotiations with insurers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs). Eli Lilly has also joined the price competition by setting the price of Mounjaro in China at about $62, representing an 80% reduction from the previous level.

Development of oral obesity treatments also accelerates

Competition to develop new oral products is also intensifying. Unlike injectable drugs that have dominated the market so far, oral treatments do not require refrigerated storage (cold chain) and offer higher patient adherence. Novo Nordisk moved to secure market leadership by commercially launching oral Wegovy earlier this year, while Eli Lilly is developing the small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglipron with the goal of obtaining approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in April this year.

Korean companies are also accelerating development of oral treatments. Samchundang Pharm succeeded last year in a bioequivalence test for a generic version of oral Wegovy. While the formulation patent for oral Wegovy remains valid in major markets such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan until 2039, the company explains that it can circumvent this through its proprietary formulation technology “S-PASS.” Ildong Pharmaceutical has also set a plan to achieve both technology licensing and entry into Phase 2 clinical trials this year for ID110521156, an oral GLP-1–based new drug candidate.

Moves to establish cooperative fronts to secure market leadership are also increasingly being observed. Pfizer acquired obesity drug developer Metsera last year for $10 billion, securing a competitive obesity treatment pipeline including the injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist MET 097i, the amylin analog MET 233i, oral GLP-1 candidate substances, and preclinical assets based on nutrient-stimulating hormones. Zealand Pharma is jointly developing the obesity treatment candidate petrelintide with Roche and recently confirmed meaningful weight reduction effects along with high tolerability in a Phase 2 clinical trial. Petrelintide is an amylin analog–class drug with a mechanism that induces weight loss by regulating appetite and slowing gastric emptying.