Trump Touts Military Gains and Signals Victory, Iran Counters With “$200 Oil” Warning

Claim that most strategic targets have been eliminated
Tehran responds with hardline rhetoric, raising economic and digital retaliation
Political limits remain over regime change, nuclear program, and the Strait of Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump again raised the possibility of an early end to the military campaign against Iran. He argued that joint airstrikes with Israel had eliminated most major military targets, leaving few remaining objectives for attack. In the process, Trump repeatedly delivered the message that the timing of the war’s conclusion ultimately depends on his own judgment. Iran, however, has responded with a hardline stance, warning of a possible surge in global oil prices and raising the prospect of financial and digital retaliation. Diplomatic observers note that Washington’s political goals—such as regime change in Iran and the dismantling of its nuclear program—remain unresolved.

“I Decide When It Ends” Message of War Control

According to U.S. political outlet Axios on March 12, Trump said in a phone interview with the outlet the previous day that the war against Iran was “going very well” and that “we are far ahead of schedule.” He added that “there are very few targets left to strike” and said the war would end “the moment I decide to end it.” The White House had originally projected the conflict could last six weeks, and Trump’s remarks suggesting that military objectives had been achieved far earlier than expected have fueled analysis that the administration may already be activating a form of exit strategy.

On the battlefield, the achievements emphasized by Washington have focused largely on weakening Iran’s maritime military capabilities. U.S. intelligence agencies recently detected indications that Iran had begun laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments. In response, U.S. forces carried out airstrikes targeting related vessels, and Trump said on March 10 that “16 Iranian mine-laying ships were destroyed by U.S. military operations.” Officials explained that eliminating military threats in the strait—through which more than 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments pass—was one of the operation’s central objectives.

Operational commanders delivered a similar explanation. Gen. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), said in a video message on March 11 that the purpose of the operation was to eliminate Iran’s ability to project military power or threaten shipping in the Persian Gulf region. He added that the United States would continue to deploy overwhelming combat power against the Iranian regime, arguing that the structure of the conflict inevitably strengthens U.S. military capabilities while weakening Iran’s. Cooper also noted that Iranian missile and drone attacks have recently declined significantly.

Washington’s military pressure has also been accompanied by political messaging directed at Iran’s leadership. Trump said he was “disappointed” by Mojtaba Khamenei, who was selected as successor after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, arguing that the choice would ultimately deepen Iran’s existing problems. Asked whether dialogue with Mojtaba might be possible, Trump said it could be depending on the conditions presented by Tehran. At the same time, however, he added that he did not believe Mojtaba could “live peacefully,” sending a combined message of military success and political pressure.

Economic and Cyber Domains Drawn Into the Conflict

Iran, meanwhile, has continued issuing increasingly hardline messages indicating its determination to sustain the war. Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari warned in a statement that the international community should prepare for a “$200 oil era,” adding that global prices will depend on the regional security environment destabilized by the United States. He also said that as retaliation for attacks on Iranian financial institutions, financial organizations worldwide that conduct transactions with the United States or Israel could become targets. The statement openly signaled that military confrontation could expand into retaliatory actions aimed at the global financial system.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also formalized retaliation in response to Israeli attacks on financial institutions, designating major American technology companies and financial hubs as legitimate targets. Tasnim News, a state-affiliated IRGC media outlet, published a list of potential targets naming Microsoft, Google, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle. Iranian officials claimed the companies had provided technological support for Israeli military operations and said that as the war expands into an infrastructure conflict, the scope of potential targets has also broadened.

Tensions are also continuing along maritime transport routes. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively fallen into paralysis as Iran moves toward a blockade. On that day alone, three additional merchant vessels registered in Thailand, Japan, and the Marshall Islands were attacked, bringing the total number of ships struck since the outbreak of the war to 14. The International Energy Agency has considered recommending the release of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves—the largest release on record—in response to the worsening situation. Analysts note, however, that such a volume would represent only about three weeks’ worth of shipments typically passing through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting its ability to fundamentally calm market fears.

As the war drags on, casualties and economic damage are expanding rapidly. Iran’s government claims that more than 10,000 civilian residences have been destroyed by joint U.S.–Israeli airstrikes and that approximately 1,300 civilians have been killed. In Lebanon, where Israeli strikes have also occurred, 570 people have reportedly died and roughly 780,000 refugees have been displaced. With attacks expanding from energy storage and financial facilities to civilian housing areas, social instability across the Middle East appears to be intensifying.

Confusion Over War’s End Adds to Uncertainty

For these reasons, some observers argue that despite Trump’s confidence in victory, major political objectives—such as regime change in Iran, the complete neutralization of its nuclear program, and the stabilization of the Strait of Hormuz—remain unfulfilled. One of the central political aims of the war, regime change, collapsed after the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, when his son Mojtaba, widely considered a hardliner, assumed the position of supreme leader. Mojtaba reportedly sustained minor injuries in Israeli airstrikes and remains in seclusion, but he is believed to remain relatively intact, leading analysts to conclude that the current system is unlikely to collapse in the near term.

Eliminating Iran’s nuclear program also remains uncertain. At a press conference, Trump said the Iranian navy had been sunk, the air force destroyed, and radar and air defense systems neutralized, describing the operation as a “tremendous success.” At the same time, he added that he wanted to ensure Iran could not develop weapons capable of targeting the United States, Israel, or their allies “for a very long time.” The BBC noted that despite the military strikes, Trump has not yet achieved his stated objectives, highlighting the continuing gap between battlefield results and broader political goals.

The Strait of Hormuz—one of the war’s central geopolitical variables—also cannot yet be considered secure. In a CBS interview on the ninth of this month, Trump again said the war had reached its final phase and was progressing far ahead of the initial timetable. Yet just two days later, at a press conference, he responded to a question about whether the war would end within the week by saying that although it might conclude sooner than expected, it was “not yet” over, leaving open the possibility of continued operations against Iran. Such contradictory messages have reinforced the interpretation that unresolved tensions remain between political rhetoric emphasizing military success and the actual strategic objectives of the conflict.