Policy

China moves to restrict fertilizer exports amid Middle East-driven raw material supply shock Global fertilizer market faces severe disruption, with some warning of renewed resource weaponization Global supply chains remain at China’s mercy, with numerous critical minerals also under its sway

Trump publicly criticizes allies turning away from the Strait of Hormuz U.S.

Hezbollah’s Entry Expands the Scope of the ConflictMilitary Involvement Risks Deteriorating Relations with the Middle East

“Show Commitment as Allies” Remark Signals Demand for Troop SupportQatari LNG Supply Disruption → Direct Impact on Korea and Japan

Trump pressures allies to join military operations in the Strait of Hormuz The EU and Germany effectively refuse, while Britain reverses course and maintains an ambiguous posture Japan, constrained by its pacifist constitution, faces speculation over possible participation should a Hormuz blockade become prolonged

Demand for postponement of summit ahead of China visit China entangled in energy, Iran ties, and U.S. negotiations Washington’s dual-track pressure strategy spanning energy and geopolitics As U.S.

Five countries specifically cited, envisioning joint operations with U.S.

Major Oil Producers Face Direct Impact, Qatar’s GDP Projected to Fall 14%Iran Adopts a Strategy of Endurance Despite Military Disadvantage

Plan to allow foreign vessels to transport crude oil and petroleum productsManufacturing economies in East Asia confront rising energy supply tensions

Expensive U.S. air defense systems deployed to counter low-cost weaponsDrone attacks cause limited physical damage but ripple through financial markets

Iran warns of a “closure of the Strait of Hormuz” and carries out actual attacks on transiting vessels Global oil prices surge despite the IEA’s largest-ever emergency stockpile release As Iran signals resolve for a prolonged conflict, Trump claims “the United States has won”

China’s Push for Military Self-Reliance Gains Momentum, Arms Imports Contract Sharply Asia and Oceania Accelerate Rearmament Chinese-Made Weapons Remain Mired in Combat-Performance Controversies, Sustaining Doubts Over Military Capabilities

Qatar production halt erases 20% of global supply European gas prices surge 68%, with Asia also taking a direct hit U.S.

Government discussing measures to expand supply, including converting retail space into housing If realized, the move is expected to simultaneously ease retail blight and the housing supply cliff Special legislation also under review to lower institutional barriers

Direct punitive measures targeting specific countries and industries Broad scope for sanctions, including additional tariffs and import restrictions A foreshadowed next step after reciprocal tariffs were struck down, aimed at reimposing extra duties

Claim that most strategic targets have been eliminatedTehran responds with hardline rhetoric, raising economic and digital retaliation

Escalating maritime tensions amid signs of mine deploymentDebate over U.S. control of sea lanes intensifies

U.S.

Late-Stage Offensive Aims to Cripple Core InfrastructureIran Keeps Up Retaliatory Strikes as Clash Continues

Trump Claims “War With Iran Will End Very Quickly, 80% of Missile Bases Destroyed” Tenth Day of Military Operations Seen as Attempt to Calm Markets and Contain Public Anxiety Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Rebuts Trump’s “Imminent End” Remarks, Reaffirms Determination to Fight